Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 215.422642 261.325357 317.993388 394.303691 496.285878 6.307379e+02 8.264405e+02
2025-07-06 158.780295 209.890869 280.894665 390.554556 563.182226 8.391826e+02 1.349197e+03
2025-07-13 137.245291 193.534599 279.208307 427.217259 696.027696 1.211824e+03 2.437381e+03
2025-07-20 121.970536 180.806342 277.059305 459.501056 835.036697 1.690984e+03 4.342536e+03
2025-07-27 109.523457 168.985830 272.167345 483.729409 970.570116 2.278651e+03 7.668221e+03
2025-08-03 98.754417 157.420384 264.304910 498.671516 1094.425646 2.967352e+03 1.347700e+04
2025-08-10 89.007136 145.678329 253.140216 502.480363 1194.040258 3.711354e+03 2.335619e+04
2025-08-17 79.735532 133.197660 237.795013 491.714438 1248.612136 4.380910e+03 3.843172e+04
2025-08-24 71.823165 122.064555 223.009432 477.846894 1287.857453 5.068647e+03 6.388219e+04
2025-08-31 65.108310 112.308890 209.361396 462.991645 1317.446593 5.789318e+03 1.092589e+05
2025-09-07 63.630872 112.644922 217.617297 509.560724 1605.685268 8.818195e+03 4.844994e+05
2025-09-14 59.643866 107.311142 212.057353 515.302778 1739.582088 1.125365e+04 1.981628e+06
2025-09-21 56.572599 103.696540 210.378331 534.211038 1962.714378 1.579268e+04 5.532776e+07
2025-09-28 52.558707 97.588171 201.668911 528.416434 2066.509288 1.979995e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 51.695486 98.229870 209.913973 583.028472 2573.003276 3.595933e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 50.465704 97.869904 215.529290 631.644962 3134.768216 6.729502e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 48.809530 96.301515 217.602175 668.431567 3695.755247 1.266626e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 46.810200 93.671328 216.231671 691.242653 4205.646530 2.362282e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 44.494733 90.014030 211.277409 697.072208 4588.084807 4.177572e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 41.805237 85.167674 202.066790 680.610020 4723.254973 6.275278e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 39.246779 80.413275 192.476869 659.476421 4785.483630 9.126659e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 36.886190 75.946735 183.168499 636.927925 4807.138194 1.313362e+06 NaN
2025-11-30 36.824668 77.269149 191.963761 707.924848 6288.573158 1.598130e+07 NaN